Jerusalem is not only Israel's largest city; it is also one of the fastest growing. This is due to a high birth rate and an influx of immigrants. Nor is the demographic make-up of the neighborhoods static: there is a high rate of intra-city migration, which contributes to the burgeoning population of the city's peripheral neighborhoods. As in other large cities around the world, these peripheral neighborhoods have benefited most from the population increase, while the city center and adjoining neighborhoods have shown a steady decline. Plans for future construction corroborate this trend; most building in the coming years will take place in the outlying neighborhoods.

This pattern will necessarily have a marked impact on the way the municipality manages the city. Services must be expanded constantly so that they encompass the new neighborhoods and address the needs of their diverse populations.

Natural increase (the ratio of births to deaths);

The balance of migration (new arrivals vs. those leaving for other communities within Israel);

Immigration;

Emigration.

Furthermore, to understand the rapid growth of certain neighborhoods (and the decline of others), intra-city migration must also be considered.

The most important factor contributing to the overall increase in population in Jerusalem is certainly natural increase. Immigration is the second major factor.

In contrast, the number of people leaving Jerusalem in the past decade has been detrimental to the city, both quantitatively and qualitatively. This issue must be addressed with the utmost urgency. It is vital to the city's well-being to curb the number of those leaving Jerusalem and to encourage immigrants to settle in Jerusalem on a permanent basis.

 

Natural Increase

Jerusalem boasts a high rate of natural increase. Whereas in 1995 Israel's rate of natural increase was 14.7 per thousand, in Jerusalem it was 23.6. This can be broken down further into the Jewish population—19 per thousand, as compared with 11 for all of Israel—and the non-Jewish population—34 per thousand, as compared with 30.6 for the country's non-Jewish population (The Statistical Yearbook of Jerusalem, 1996). In fact, the high rate of natural increase can be largely attributed to two distinct communities: the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community and the non-Jewish community. In the 1980s the rate of natural increase constituted 80% or more of total population growth in the city. In the early 1990s, however, this figure dropped to approximately 50%, due to the large number of new immigrants then being absorbed in Jerusalem.

 

Crude Birth Rate, 1996

Another indication of Jerusalem's high rate of natural increase is the "crude birth rate," measured in births per thousand (The Statistical Yearbook of Israel, 1997):

Israel's national total: 21.3 per thousand

Jerusalem: 29.0 per thousand

Jews: 26.0 per thousand

Non-Jews: 36.1 per thousand

Tel Aviv: 16.2 per thousand

Haifa: 13.0 per thousand

Jerusalem's crude birth rate is, therefore, significantly higher than both the national rate and the birth rate of Israel's other two leading cities, Tel Aviv and Haifa.

Immigration

Throughout the 1980s, Jerusalem was absorbing approximately 2,500 immigrants each year. This increased dramatically in the early 1990s: in 1990, 13,600 immigrants arrived; in 1991, 14,400; in 1992, 7,500; in 1993, 5,775; in 1994, 5,530; in 1995, 4,800 and in 1996, 4,470. By the early 1990s alone, Jerusalem had absorbed over 52,000 new immigrants.

Most immigrants (35%) who arrived in Jerusalem between 1989 and 1995 live in the city's peripheral neighborhoods: Pisgat Zeev, Neve Yaakov, Gilo, and Ramot. Other neighborhoods with large immigrant populations include Gonenim, Ramat Eshkol (each with 10% of all the city's immigrants), and Kiryat Yovel (with an additional 9%; source: The Municipal Authority for Immigrant Absorption and the Ministry of the Interior).

Internal Migration (migration to and from Jerusalem)

Despite the overall population growth, the past decade has also witnessed a growing number of Jerusalemites leaving the city for other communities in Israel. In this period alone, the city's migration balance was negative to the tune of 40,000-30,000 of them in the past five years. Whereas in 1983 the negative balance of migration was less than 1,500 persons, in 1990 it had risen to 3,100, in 1991 to 5,600, in 1992 to 5,900, in 1993 to 6,149, in 1994 to 6,139, in 1995 to 6,070 and in 1996 to 5,868. Young Jerusalemites and families in the labor force with children constituted the bulk of those leaving the city.

In 1992 almost 16,000 people left Jerusalem for other communities. In 1993, 16,600 people left ,in 1994, approximately 15,500 ,in 1995, 15,600 and in 1996, 16,400. Over one-third of those leaving Jerusalem settled in satellite communities surrounding the city, particularly Ma'ale Adumim, Mevasseret Zion, Giv'at Ze'ev, Efrat, Betar Elit, and Beit Shemesh. 20%-25% moved to the Greater Tel-Aviv area, particularly Tel Aviv proper and Bnei Brak.

A portion of those who have left Jerusalem for other towns and villages in Israel are new immigrants, who began in Jerusalem but later decided to leave the city. Statistics show that 4,300 immigrants left Jerusalem in 1993, comprising about one-quarter of al people who left the city. In 1994, some 3,370 immigrants left the city (21% of all people who left), and in 1995, 3,221 immigrants left (also 21%).

In the past few years a growing number of ultra-Orthodox Jews have been leaving the city, mainly for the more homogeneous communities of Betar Elit, Bnei Brak, and Telz Stone, where they can find less expensive housing

Most of those leaving Jerusalem for communities on the city's periphery cited housing costs as the chief factor behind their decision to move. Nevertheless, this population continues to rely on Jerusalem for employment, business, trade, commerce, and other services. Those that left for Tel Aviv cited more diversified employment opportunities as well as housing costs.

Emigration

There is no noticeable pattern regarding the number of Jerusalemites emigrating from Israel. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, 2,984 Jerusalem residents left the country in 1996.

Intra-city Migration

As in any large city, there is a high rate of relocation within Jerusalem itself. In 1991 the number of residents to migrate within the city was 18,000; in 1992 it was 28,000; in 1993, 33,000; in 1994, 32,000; in 1995, 31,000 and in 1996, 32,500 (all figures are approximations). For the most part, older neighborhoods near the city center are "losing" population to newer neighborhoods on the periphery.

Neighborhoods benefiting from a positive balance of internal immigration include Shuafat (West), with the highest positive balance of immigration (2,105), Pisgat Ze'ev, and Manhat, followed by parts of Neve Ya'akov, Ramot, Gilo, and Isawiyya. There are also neighborhoods experiencing an extensive "exchange of populations", i.e., the number of people relocating to these neighborhoods equals the number of those leaving. In most cases, this can be attributed to people leaving small and/or relatively inexpensive apartments for larger apartments and/or better neighborhoods—the population that replaces them is generally younger and/or of a lower economic status. The areas in which there is the greatest population mobility are Talpiot, Beit Hanina, Ramot, Neve Ya'akov, Gilo, Gonenim, Sanhedriyya, and Tel Arza.

In the past several years, neighborhoods on Jerusalem's periphery have benefited most from the city's population growth. Figure 5 depicts the distribution of this growth for the years 1990-1996. The following results are evident:

During the past few years, Jerusalem has benefited from massive building and development projects. To date, some 8,000 residential units are in the process of being built and many more are under various stages of planning and development. Most residential building for Jewish residents is concentrated in the neighborhoods of Giv'at Massuah, Pisgat Ze'ev, and Manchat.